6/9/25 Forecast (6/9 - 6/16)

 Fuels:

Periods of heavy rainfall continued to impact southern portions of the state through the weekend. As a result, the fire environment continues to improve statewide, weighted towards this region. Fuels are not expected to carry fire, even where some winter wheat is beginning to cure out. Further north, along the NE border in north-central Kansas, much of the widespread moisture has missed this region. As a result, drying has commenced and overall receptivity may increase by mid-to-late week with above normal temperatures and drier conditions. However, the landscape remains very broken with areas of woodlands and agriculture not-conducive for fire spread through this period. Additionally, ERCs will still remain at/below normal for the region. As a result, any fire activity is expected to remain controllable and low intensity as a result.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 1

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, June 9th

Temperatures will climb several degrees higher than Sunday with widespread sun and drier conditions. Afternoon minimum humidity will drop into the mid-20% range, especially for northwest and central Kansas. Winds will breezy out of the northwest, with gusts to 30mph possible, mainly north of I-70 and east of US-81. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, June 10th

Temperatures as much as 10F warmer than Monday and above normal with highs near 90F. Combined with widespread sunshine will result in humidity again in the mid-20% range during the afternoon. Winds will be lighter with only a few gusts to 20mph in the southwest. 

 

 

Wednesday, June 11th

Clouds increase from the south from thunderstorms in OK. That will limit temperatures somewhat across southern Kansas. Elsewhere, temperatures will again approach the 90F mark. Afternoon humidity in these areas will again drop into the mid-20% range. Breezy west/northwest winds expected across the state with afternoon gusts in the mid-20 to 30mph range. 

 


Thursday, June 12th

An increase in afternoon clouds and thunderstorms, especially in western Kansas, will limit temperatures somewhat compared to previous days. Winds will also be lighter with gusts out of the west up to 20mph. Humidity will only drop into the 30% range statewide. 

 

Friday, June 13th

Additional thunderstorm activity is expected with several different storm complexes possible across the southeast in the morning and the west in the afternoon. Areas of central and northeast Kansas that don't see clouds/precipitation as much can expect temperatures to remain warm, near 90F. This will also be where lowest humidity is observed in the 30% range. Overall fire weather concerns are minimal.


 

 

Saturday, June 14th

Persistent weather pattern remains with showers/storm activity mainly focused in the west and southeastern portions of the state. Warm/dry conditions will reside where precipitation is negligible, mostly in central and northeast Kansas. Winds in this area will remain light and variable. 

 

 

Sunday, June 15th

Thunderstorm activity will be more isolated and mainly limited to western Kansas during the day. Another complex will develop late evening in the west and move eastward across the state into Monday morning. Breezy westerly winds up to 30mph expected in west/central Kansas. Temperatures will remain above normal with humidity in the upper 20% to 30% range. 


 

Monday, June 16th

Storms will exist east to start the day. Breezy westerly winds will usher in much warmer/drier weather. Widespread temperatures in the mid-90s with afternoon humidity down to near 20%. 

 

 

Chip (6/9/25)

Next forecast: 6/16/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.








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