6/30/25 Forecast (6/30 - 7/7)

Fuels:

Episodes of precipitation became more isolated over the last week with many locations observing a drying trend. Combined with continued warmer than normal temperatures (albeit cooler than last week), overall the fire landscape has slightly degraded with decreases in GSI, resulting in curing cool season grasses. This curing was mainly focused in northwest/western Kansas through the period. Still, the fire landscape is mostly dominated by overall green outside of wheat fields. Fire behavior will be limited to these cured out areas and quickly run into greener timberlines and warm season grasses. This will keep fire spread concerns low and fires easy to manage through the period. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, June 30th

Showers and storms dissipate this morning before more redevelop in southeastern Kansas this evening. Temperatures moderated compared to the weekend with highs in the 80s. Afternoon humidity will fall into the 30% range for western Kansas. With light winds, no fire weather expected.  

 

 

  

 

Tuesday, July 1st

Winds shift southeasterly with a few gusts to 25mph in the west. Temperatures will warm a few degrees compared to Monday with afternoon humidity falling into the 20% range. A few showers/storms possible in far southwestern Kansas.  

 

 


 

 

Wednesday, July 2nd

Temperatures continue to warm and return to the 90s for much of the state. Afternoon humidity will drop into the 20% range for northern Kansas. Further south, showers/storms will develop in the late afternoon and attempt to spread northward. This will overspread clouds as well that should limit fire weather concerns. Light southeast winds that become dominated by afternoon storm outflow.  

 

 

  

Thursday, July 3rd

 Light southeast winds continue with several episodes of showers/storms likely. These will over-rule the mean winds at times. Temperatures slightly cooler than Wednesday with more moderated humidity. 

 

 


Friday, July 4th

Continued rounds of showers/storms moving from west to east. Drier air will push into western Kansas late day with afternoon humidity falling into the mid-20% range. Temperatures will warm into the low 90s for the west but be more dependent on storms and associated cloud cover further east. 

. 

 

 


Saturday, July 5th

A few lingering storms in eastern Kansas, otherwise temperatures warming, to near 95-100F across most of the state. Winds will be light out of the west. Afternoon storms will develop along the mountains of CO and try to push east in the evening into Kansas. Storm predictability is low. 


 


 

Sunday, July 6th

Lingering showers/storms possible in the morning, weakening after sunrise. Another round will likely develop west of Kansas and try to push into the state by the late afternoon/evening. Coverage of these storms will determine how warm/dry it gets and dominate the wind patterns. No fire weather concerns. 

 


 

Monday, July 7th

Similar pattern to the last few days with episodes of sporadic storm complexes. Where storms miss, temperatures will warm into the low 90s. Otherwise, some localized heavy rains. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Chip (6/30/25)

Next forecast: 7/7/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.












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