6/16/25 Forecast (6/16 - 6/23)

Fuels:

Much warmer temperatures combined with increased sunshine and periods of breezy winds have initiated a drying trend for much of the state. While some areas in the west/central did receive moisture over the weekend, most of the state is below normal moisture for the week. This is especially the case in portions of east/northeast Kansas that remained completely dry. As a result, cool season grasses (and wheat) are curing out and gradually becoming available. Much more impactful heat is expected to build late week and into the weekend. This combined with low humidity and gusty winds will dramatically change the fire environment, especially for western Kansas. This will work on curing out cool season grasses quickly and potentially allow for more fire spread. However, the broken landscape with timber areas and agriculture should limit large fire potential through the period. Expect an increase in initial attack with increased fire behavior. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:


Monday, June 16th

Despite warmer temperatures persisting, afternoon humidity will remain fairly high. Breezy south/southeast winds with gusts to 20mph possible in the afternoon. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

 

Tuesday, June 17th

A complex of thunderstorms will enter northern Kansas very early in the morning and slowly work south before diminishing. Additional storm development is expected across the region, favoring northern/eastern Kansas into the overnight. Associated clouds and higher humidity will result in no fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Wednesday, June 18th

 Much cooler temperatures across the state with light northwest winds. Humidity will remain fairly high, in the mid-50% range. This will result in no fire weather concerns. 

 

  

Thursday, June 19th

Temperatures warm by almost 10 degrees as high pressure builds in across the region. Much drier air will work eastward into western Kansas with afternoon humidity down into the 10-15% range, increasing to 40% in the east. Winds out of the south/southwest will increase during the day with some gusts to 25mph. Overall alignment is limited, however, brief elevated fire weather will be experienced two counties east of the KS/CO border in the afternoon. 

 


Friday, June 20th

Elevated fire weather west of US-283.  

Winds shift more southwesterly with gusts to 30mph. This will result in continued warm and dry air pushing into west/central Kansas. Afternoon highs will push the 100F mark with afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range. This will result in elevated fire weather for portions of west/central Kansas. Humidity will be higher in the east, with minimums in the mid-40% range. 

 


Saturday, June 21st

Continued south/southwest wind will pump very warm temperatures into the region. Gusts could reach as high as the mid-40mph range. This, combined with afternoon humidity into the 15-20% range will develop elevated fire weather for much of west/central Kansas. Moisture will gradually increase late in the afternoon for central Kansas that should limit the duration of fire weather concerns. 

 


 

Sunday, June 22nd

Moisture will gradually increase despite continued warmth and gusty southerly winds. As a result, a few afternoon storms are likely in portions of western Kansas. Periodic clouds and increased moisture should limit fire weather concerns for the most part. 


 

Monday, June 23rd

Temperatures slightly cooler than previous days with still breezy conditions and moderated humidity. Afternoon showers/storms should develop in western Kansas and gradually move eastward during the evening.  

 

 

Chip (6/16/25)

Next forecast: 6/23/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.









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