5/5/25 Forecast (5/5 - 5/12)

Fuels:

Slightly drier conditions over the weekend allowed for reduced mud and increased field work for areas of the state that needed it. However, widespread greenness exists and is expected to reach at/near 90% green by the end of the week. This will be aided with several rounds of precipitation expanding eastward across the state through mid-week. As a result, fire spread is significantly limited with minimal behavior through the period. Several weeks of drying are required for any potential wildfire concerns. 


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, May 5th

Showers/thunderstorms will develop in southwest Kansas late afternoon with increasing clouds across the middle portion of the state. Breezy southeasterly winds and humidity in the 30% range for most of central/east Kansas. 

 

 

Tuesday, May 6th

Storm activity expands eastward into central Kansas with widespread cloud cover and moisture, especially focused along southern Kansas. Winds easterly with lowest RH along the NE border with slightly drier conditions, around 40%. 


 

 

Wednesday, May 7th

Multiple additional rounds of showers/storms across a majority of the state. The only area that may not have wetting moisture is along the NE border.  


Thursday, May 8th

Lingering showers/storms and cloud cover across most of the state. This will result in widespread moderation in the fire environment with no fire concerns.

 

 

Friday, May 9th

Drier air funnels into the state behind a cold front as storms shift east of the region. Winds will be northerly with lingering moderated humidity. No fire weather concerns. 


 

 

Saturday, May 10th

Another weak wave of showers/storms possible in eastern Kansas will result in cloud cover across much of the state. With continued moderated humidity and only light wind, fire weather will be minimal. 

 

Sunday, May 11th

Breezy southerly winds with temperatures warming. However, despite gusts to 35mph, afternoon humidity will only fall to about 30% for portions of western Kansas. Higher humidity for central/east where clouds will be more prevalent. 

 

 

 

Monday, May 12th

Breezy southerly winds will continue with similar conditions to Sunday. Humidity will only bottom out at around the 40% mark as moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching system. Continued higher humidity will limit fire weather concerns. 


 

 

 

Chip (5/5/25)

Next forecast: 5/12/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.



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