5/19/25 Forecast (5/19 - 5/26)

Fuels:

Continued warm, dry and breezy conditions slowly reduced soil moisture and overall greening has begun to subside. This has in turn started stressing some grasses, however, overall the landscape remains broken and non-conducive to fire spread. Additional moisture and cooler weather is expected later this week that should help check up any further drying. This should keep any fire activity minimal through the period.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, May 19th

Active weather will continue with afternoon/evening storms along east of a dryline in central Kansas into the overnight. West of the dryline, humidity will fall to around 30%. Breezy winds will develop overnight as a strong cold front pushes into the state. Humidity will increase statewide after sunset so fire weather concerns aren't expected.

 

 

Tuesday, May 20th

A drier, cooler post frontal air mass will reside across the state. Afternoon humidity will fall to near 20%. Northwest winds will gust up to 45mph. Greatest alignment of low humidity and gusty winds will be over northern Kansas where heaviest rain fell Sunday night. Thus, no fire weather concerns despite weather criteria being there. Winds will diminish after sunset.


 

 

Wednesday, May 21st

Lighter flow will overspread the area as high pressure builds into the region. Light northwest winds will gradually turn to the southeast during the day. Temperatures will warm slightly with widespread afternoon humidity in the 40% range. A few showers/storms in the southeast.  


Thursday, May 22nd

Winds shift southeast ahead of the next storm system. This will increase moisture across the region with warming temperatures. Low humidity will be in the 40% range statewide with mostly sunny skies. Increasing clouds overnight and into Friday with high overnight humidity. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Friday, May 23rd

A dryline will push into far western Kansas with counties along the CO border observing afternoon humidity as low as the teens. Winds will southwest with gusts to 25mph. Further east, scattered showers/storms are expected east of this dryline. No fire weather concerns.


 

 

Saturday, May 24th

Storm system strengthens with the low oriented somewhere in western Kansas. Southwest of this low in southwest Kansas, breezy southwesterly winds up to 35mph are possible. Afternoon humidity could fall to the 20% range briefly before cloud cover increases. This could allow for a narrow window of at least elevated fire weather. Further north/east, periods of showers/storms and widespread clouds should mitigate any fire weather concerns.

 

Sunday, May 25th

Some uncertainty exists on the track and movement of this slowing moving low pressure system. Behind the system, breezy northerly winds are expected. However, regardless of outcome, fire weather concerns will be minimal with fairly widespread clouds and episodes of showers/storms.

 

 

 

Monday, May 26th

High pressure will likely be building in across the region. Warmer temperatures are expected with breezy westerly winds. Some lingering clouds and precipitation possible in far eastern Kansas. No fire weather concerns. 


 

Chip (5/19/25)

Next forecast: 5/26/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.





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