5/12/25 Forecast (5/12 - 5/19)

 

Fuels:

Much warmer and drier conditions over the last week have resulted in increases in ERC and subtle drought expansion. Available soil moisture from recent precipitation is being depleted quickly as things continue to green up. As a result, anticipate vegetation to likely start becoming stressed by the end of the period. While conditions are still modest at best, overall receptivity will increase, especially where there are standing dormant fuels. Green grass may begin to consume but overall rates of spread and suppression difficulty should still be low. There are numerous barriers to fire spread and the landscape is not going to effectively carry fire.


Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, May 12th

Breezy southerly winds today, especially west of US-81. Winds will gust up to 30mph in the afternoon. With mostly sunny skies, afternoon temperatures will push into the mid-80s with humidity falling into the upper 20% range statewide. Some very border-line elevated fire weather is possible in north-central Kansas where recent moisture has been void. Especially Sheridan to Rooks Co and northward. Winds will decrease after sunset.

 

 

Tuesday, May 13th

Breezy southerly winds return but become more southeasterly. Gusts will be slightly less than Monday with gusts to 25mph. Additionally, moisture will increase in the central/east with the southeast flow. Despite continued warm/hot conditions, increased moisture and decreased winds will result in no fire weather concerns.


 

 

Wednesday, May 14th

Weak low pressure will develop across the state with continued moderated humidity in east/central Kansas. A weak dryline will spread drier conditions and much above normal temperatures for central/west Kansas. With temperatures above 90F, humidity will drop into the mid-20% range, especially in southwest. Some modest elevated fire weather possible in the afternoon. Otherwise, fire weather will remain low despite continued drying.  


Thursday, May 15th

A potent cold front will push across the state early in the day. West/northwest winds increase post-frontal with gusts to 35mph, especially along/north of I-70. Despite cooler temperatures, this drier air will result in afternoon humidity around 20% for much of the state. Some brief elevated fire weather is possible in northern Kansas, along the NE border.

 

 

Friday, May 16th

"Cooler" northwest flow will continue across the state with gusts to 25mph. Even with temperatures still near 80F, very dry air will remain with afternoon humidity in 15-20% range. Fuels are likely starting to become more stressed and may result in near-elevated fire weather during the afternoon hours. Conditions should reside after sunset.


 

 

Saturday, May 17th

Continued dry conditions across the region with afternoon humidity falling into the mid-teens. Winds will subside compared to previous days as the parent storm system slides off to the east. Southeast winds will develop in southwest Kansas during the afternoon with gusts to 20mph. Temperatures will increase back into the mid-to-upper 80s as dry weather persists.

 

Sunday, May 18th

Another weak low pressure system will develop in central Kansas. This will push a dryline into central Kansas which will demarcate higher humidity in the east and much drier conditions, with humidity in the 10-15% range for southwest Kansas. Southerly winds up to 25mph in southwest Kansas may result in some localized elevated fire weather. Further east, some showers/storms may develop along the dryline and push eastward to MO.

 

 

 

Monday, May 19th

Stagnant low pressure will gradually shift northeast. This will keep the dryline oriented north/south through the state. However, placement is a bit questionable on how far east it'll push. Elevated afternoon fire weather may develop west of the dryline with wind gusts to 30mph and very dry air. Along/east of the dryline, more humid air and scattered showers/storms. . 


 

Chip (5/12/25)

Next forecast: 5/19/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.




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