4/7/25 Forecast (4/7 - 4/14)

 Fuels:

All of the state has measured at least 0.25" or more in the last week except a corridor from southwest Kansas extending northward into north-central.  In this corridor, ERCs remain the highest in the state with observed percentiles above the 50th and forecasted to reach above the 75th during the period. This area also has the least amount of greenup. As a result, fire behavior in this region will be aggressive during warm/dry/windy conditions. Further east, recent precipitation has improved greenup greatly. As a result, green vegetation and improved moisture in timberlines is resulting decreased fire behavior and more barriers to spread. Large fire potential during the period will remain west of a Smith to Clark Co line. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

 

Growing Season Index:

 


Forecast:

Monday, April 7th

Light northerly winds linger for eastern Kansas, light/variable for the remainder of the state. Temperatures a few degrees warmer with afternoon humidity in the low 20% range with continued drying. Light winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 


Tuesday, April 8th

Southerly winds will increase with gusts to 30mph in central Kansas. Further west, winds will be more southwesterly and lighter. Shift in winds will result in an increase in moisture for central/eastern Kansas with afternoon humidity in the 30% range. Moderated humidity and lighter winds in the far west will temper fire weather conditions. 


 

Wednesday, April 9th

Elevated fire weather west of a Smith to Clark Co line. 

Cold front crosses the state in the morning with a few showers in far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front, breezy southwesterly winds are expected for eastern Kansas. Post-frontal, winds will shift northwesterly with gusts to 30mph possible. Elevated fire weather will develop post-frontal with a dry air mass moving into the region with afternoon humidity around 20%.  Despite the cold front, temperatures will actually be about 10F warmer than Tuesday. 


Thursday, April 10th

Elevated fire weather statewide. 

Another cold front crosses the region overnight into early Thursday morning. This will drop temperatures a few degrees and increase northerly winds across the region. Afternoon gusts will reach the 40mph range. Despite cooler conditions, persistent dry air will yield statewide afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range. This will result in statewide elevated fire weather in the afternoon. Some critical is possible further where greenup has been slower IF front slows down. 


 

Friday, April 11th

 Winds shift southerly for western Kansas with a few afternoon gusts to 25mph. Further east, winds will be light out of the northeast. Temperatures rebound back to above average with afternoon humidity around 20% statewide. No fire weather concerns. 


Saturday, April 12th

Southerly winds increase across central/eastern Kansas with gusts to 40mph. Here, humidity will increase as a result with afternoon minimums in the 30% range. This will moderate the fire environment despite much warmer temperatures. Further west, winds will be lighter and more southwesterly. Humidity will be lower, in the 15-20% range, however, light winds will moderate fire environment here. 


 

Sunday, April 13th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas. 

Another cold front will push into the region with southwest winds becoming northwest as the front moves east. Humidity ahead of the front will be at/above 30% but dropping into the 20% range post-frontal. Winds will gust up to 40mph, especially post-frontal. This will develop elevated fire weather for western Kansas in the afternoon despite falling temperatures. 

 

Monday, April 14th

Cooler weather resides with a dry, post-frontal air mass. Afternoon humidity will drop to near 20% for most of the state. Lingering northeast winds will gust up to 35mph for central/eastern Kansas where fuels are not in alignment any more. Further west, despite low humidity, lighter winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.  


Chip (4/7/25)

Next update 4/10/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

 


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