4/28/25 Forecast (4/28 - 5/5)

 Fuels:

Widespread moisture has occurred across most of the state. Even areas that missed recent moisture are observing results of increased humidity and improved overnight humidities. This has been observed with significant 1000 hr fuel moisture increases, along with LFM and GSI. There has also been notable decrease in the KBDI. While some potential still resides where continuous dormant fuel loading exist on the landscape and dominate over greenup. However, these areas are mostly limited to the far southwest portion of the state and are fairly limited. There also needs to be conducive fire weather conditions to see any fire behavior and those windows will be limited to today (Monday). 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

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Growing Season Index:

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, April 28th

Elevated fire weather west of Republic to Barber Co and westward. 

Dryline pushes into central Kansas this afternoon with humidity in the mid-teens this afternoon. With breezy southwest winds to 30mph, some elevated fire weather is anticipated in the afternoon today for most of west and central Kansas. A cold front will push southward overnight with a wind shift northerly and increased humidity. East of the dryline, very high moisture and with gusts to 45mph possible. A few scattered storms, mostly overnight into Tuesday. 


 

Tuesday, April 29th

Light northeast winds with much cooler temperatures. The front will stall in far southeast Kansas with several rounds of showers/storms expanding northward above the front. No fire weather concerns.


 

Wednesday, April 30th

 Storms shift north and westward with more widespread precipitation. Continued cooler temperatures and high humidity. 


 

Thursday, May 1st

Another cold front will push most of the shower/storm activity eastward with only a few lingering showers in the east. Winds are more northerly with a few gusts to 20mph. Afternoon RH will fall into the 20% range for northern Kansas. Still, fire weather will remain minimal. 


 

Friday, May 2nd

Drier air continues to funnel in with breezy northerly winds diminishing in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm back into the mid-70s with humidity into the mid-20% range. No fire weather concerns with weakening wind. 


 

Saturday, May 3rd

Southerly winds return with another incoming system. With gusts to 30mph, this will increase humidity statewide with continued warmer temperatures. Increased clouds/moisture will mitigate fire weather concerns. 


 

Sunday, May 4th

Widespread showers/storms are expected for central and eastern Kansas. A dryline will push into far west Kansas with decreased humidity. However, temporal and spatial extent will be limited. Thus, no fire weather concerns expected. 


 

Monday, May 5th

Another round of widespread showers and storms statewide. 

 

Chip (4/28/25)

Next Update 5/1/25

 

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.

 

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