4/24/25 Forecast (4/24 - 5/1)

 Fuels:

For the most part, the entire state has seen wetting rainfall over the last week. A few exceptions remain in very isolated areas of southwest and northwest Kansas. These areas are so small, they don't reflect the overall fire landscape in their respective region. Greenup has continued to advance with increasing GSI values statewide. As a result, barriers to spread are copious and when combined with increased fuel moisture, decreased ERCs, fire spread will be minimal and limited to areas where there are abundant dormant fuels. These areas are only going to be conducive during brief periods of lower humidity. Even so, the only period of which fire weather will be supportive of wildland fire is the Sunday/Monday time frame. Otherwise, overall good humidity recovery and increased atmospheric moisture will keep burn windows limited. Spring fire season is coming to a close across the state.  

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: ~2

 


Growing Season Index:

 

 

Forecast:

 

Thursday, April 24th

Widespread showers and thunderstorms for all but southeastern Kansas. Moderated humidity and light winds yielding no fire weather concerns. 


 

Friday, April 25th

Storms focus more in central/eastern Kansas but widespread higher humidity and light winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 


Saturday, April 26th

Winds increase out of the southeast with a few gusts to 20mph. This will continue to funnel higher humidity into the region despite no precipitation expected. 


 

Sunday, April 27th

Elevated fire weather along and two counties east of the CO border. 

A strong low pressure system will develop in northeast CO. As a result, southerly winds increase with gusts to 40mph during the afternoon. A dryline will push into western Kansas mid-day with winds more southwesterly. Much warmer/drier with above normal temperatures west of the dryline with afternoon humidity dropping into the mid-20% range. Elevated fire weather is expected, especially areas that missed recent precipitation. Poor overnight recovery and continued breezy winds are expected along the CO border. 


Monday, April 28th

Elevated fire weather west of US-81, critical fire weather for southwest Kansas.

As the low moves eastward, the dryline will move east into central Kansas. This will expand humidity as low as the single digits across much of west/central Kansas. With southwest winds, maximized in the southwest with gusts to 40mph, will result in widespread increased fire weather. Fuels will be the limiting factor for concerns. A cold front will push south in the evening with winds shifting northerly and moderated humidity. Some isolated severe weather is possible in eastern Kansas.


Tuesday, April 29th

Light north/northeast winds with moderated humidity. Temperatures about 20 degrees cooler with no fire weather concerns. 


 

Wednesday, April 30th 

Winds shift southerly and increase with a few gusts to 20mph in the afternoon. Some drier air will work into northwest Kansas as temperatures warm up region wide. However, afternoon minimums should only fall into the upper 20% range. No fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Thursday, May 1st

 Another weak cold front expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain similar to Wednesday with continued moderated humidity. Winds will be breezy along the front and shift through the afternoon. 


Chip (4/24/25)

Next Update (4/28/25)

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


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