4/21/25 Forecast (4/21 - 4/28)

 Fuels:

Widespread moisture has occurred across much of central and eastern Kansas. This has resulted in significant moderation in fire weather conditions and a rapid increase in greenup. As a result, fuels are not expected to carry fire efficiently in these areas and there will be many barriers to fire spread. Further west. from roughly Meade to Phillips Co and westward, no precipitation was observed. This area will remain receptive to aggressive fire behavior where many locations are up to 150+ days without a quarter inch of moisture. Here ERCs are in the 75-95th %tile and will likely result in extreme fire behavior if any fire were to start in dormant fuels that have a continuous fuel load, especially early in the period. By mid-week, widespread moisture and at the very least, higher moisture should help moderate the fire environment in western Kansas as well. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2-3

 

 

Growing Season Index:

 


Forecast: 

Monday, April 21st

Elevated fire weather for the western third of Kansas. 

High pressure develops across the region with warmer/drier conditions across the region. Winds will be generally light. However, they will become southerly with some gusts to 30mph for the western third of the state. This is the same area that missed the weekend's moisture and thus, will observe afternoon humidity down to near 10%. This will result to elevated and near-critical fire weather conditions until humidity increases after sunset. 


 

Tuesday, April 22nd

Despite a weak low and associated cold front early morning, temperatures will actually increase on Tuesday. The pre-frontal corridor of southerly winds will shift east into central/eastern Kansas with a few gusts to 25mph. Humidity will increase through the morning. Afternoon humidity will again drop into the teens for much of the dry area of the state (western 1/3), the lack of winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Wednesday, April 23rd

Several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected starting very early Wednesday morning and into Thursday. As a result, cooler temperatures and increased humidity will moderate the fire environment. No fire weather concerns. 

 

Thursday, April 24th

 Periods of showers/storms with persistent overcast, cooler weather and increased humidity will mitigate any fire weather concerns. 


Friday, April 25th

Persistent conditions with another system crossing the region. No fire weather concerns. 


 

 

Saturday, April 26th

Potent line of thunderstorms will cross from west to east during the afternoon. No fire weather concerns. 


 

 

Sunday, April 27th

As the storms continue eastward, breezy winds are expected in its wake. Some drier air will push into western Kansas late afternoon, however, recent moisture should mitigate any fire weather concerns.


 

Monday, April 28th

Another system crosses the region with scattered showers/storms and high humidity. A dryline may push east into southwest Kansas late in the afternoon providing several hours of warm, windy and dry conditions. However, the limited time frame will keep fire weather concerns low.


Chip (4/21/25)

Next Update (4/24/25)

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


 

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