4/17/25 Forecast (4/17 - 4/24)

 Fuels:

Overall much warmer, drier and breezier conditions have continued to dry the landscape. In the last three days, there has been a decrease in 1000 hour fuels along with increases in ERC, KBDI and drought across the state. Growing season index has also stabilized with reports of green grass burning and not providing a barrier to spread. As a result, any dry, warm and windy period will lead to increased fire behavior. Portions of southwest to north-central Kansas have now gone 150 days without 0.25". This area has the greatest potential for extreme fire behavior and significant fire spread. Especially in non-agricultural areas that have a continuous fuel load. Increases in moisture and humidity later in the period should mitigate some of this potential, especially for central/east Kansas. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: ~3

 

 

Growing season index:

 

Forecast:

Thursday, April 17th

Extreme fire weather in southwest Kansas with critical fire weather west of US-81 and south of I-70. 

Dryline will push eastward to just east of US-81. This will overspread gusty southwest winds and humidity into the 10% range. Strongest winds will be in far southwest Kansas from roughly Greeley to Clark Co and westward. There, winds could reach up to 50mph. Additionally, this area will observe lower humidity, potentially in the mid-to-low single digits with very warm temperatures. Conditions will persist into the early evening/overnight until a cold front crosses from north to south across the state. This will bring a dramatic switch in winds to the north with an increase in humidity. 

 

 

Friday, April 18th

Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 30mph possible statewide. A much cooler air mass will reside over the state with moderated humidity keeping fire weather concerns minimal. 

 

 

Saturday, April 19th

Northeast winds to 25mph for the region. However, drier air will push into north-central and western Kansas with afternoon humidity in the mid-20% range. Conditions should be moderate enough for minimal fire weather concerns. Precipitation likely for portions of eastern and southeast Kansas. 

Sunday, April 20th

Strong low pressure system will move across the state. This will increase winds with gusts to 30mph switching as the low moves northeast. Available mositure will develop fairly widespread showers/storms in the early morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Highest chances for wetting rain reside in central and east Kansas with a rather sharp cut off with westward extent. Some dry air will move into far west KS late in the day but winds should begin to subside.  

Monday, April 21st

High pressure develops across the state and slides east in the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable, gradually becoming more southerly late afternoon. A few evening gusts to 25mph are possible in western Kansas. Temperatures rebound into the low 70s with widespread afternoon humidity around 20%, higher where precipitation occurred.  

Tuesday, April 22nd

Cold front will push across the state during the afternoon. Showers/storms are expected to develop in central Kansas along the front. Further west, drier and cooler air will push into western Kansas with afternoon humidity near 20%. Winds will become northerly post-frontal with a few gusts to 25mph. Some elevated fire weather possible in northwest Kansas but confidence is low at this time. 

Wednesday, April 23rd

Cold front will stall across southeast Kansas with another low pressure system tracking along the boundary. This will again develop widespread showers/storms for much of central and eastern Kansas. Placement may shift depending on how south the front gets. Dry air will reside along northern Kansas and the CO border. Breezy easterly winds expected however, afternoon humidity will only fall into the mid-20% range. 

 

 

Thursday, April 24th

Front shifts back northward as a warm front. This will develop gusty southerly winds with rapidly increasing moisture with cooler conditions. No fire weather concerns are expected. 

 

Chip (4/17/25)

Next Update (4/21/15)

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.