4/14/24 Forecast (4/14 - 4/21)

 Fuels:

The region has been mostly precipitation free over the last week. As a result, conditions dried statewide with an increase in ERC %tile (by 10% on average). As we go further from the last wetting rain and ERC continues to rise, fires ability to hold heat, smolder and potentially burn in areas that would've held fire several weeks ago should be considered. Additionally, fire behavior will be increased with more challenging suppression. This is especially true for the southwest Kansas to north-central corridor that have gone 145+ days without a quarter inch of rain. While greenup does continue to progress, it has showed some signs of slowing and even backing up with some cool season grasses starting to show signs of stress. This is another indication that even green vegetation may be conducive to fire spread. 

Statewide Preparedness Level: 3

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, April 14th:

Elevated fire weather for north-central and northeast Kansas. 

Breezy post-frontal conditions with temperatures running almost 20 degrees cooler than Sunday. Very dry air remains with afternoon humidity in the 10-15% range for most of the state. Northwest winds expected Kansas-wide with strongest in north-central and northeast Kansas where afternoon gusts could reach the 40mph range, strongest around sunset. Only moderate recovery expected overnight with winds slowly diminishing. 

  

 

Tuesday, April 15th

Elevated fire weather along the CO border.

High pressure resides over the region with light winds. Temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday with continued very low humidity. Winds will gradually increase in the afternoon along the CO border out of the south. Winds could gust up to 25mph yielding elevated fire weather into the evening. Again, moderate humidity recovery at best with southerly winds increasing statewide overnight.  

 

 

Wednesday, April 16th

Elevated fire weather in central Kansas. 

A dryline will push east into the state, reaching roughly the US-81 corridor. Southerly winds ahead of the dryline in eastern Kansas will gust up to the 40mph range with an increase in afternoon humidity to 40-50%. Along and just west of the dryline, winds shift southwesterly with winds weakening with western extent, becoming light in west Kansas. However, some overlap of gusts 25-30mph with low humidity post-dryline in the 10-15% range will yield elevated fire weather in central Kansas. Overnight, dryline will recede with strengthening south/southeast winds and improving humidity for all but along the CO border. 

 

 

Thursday, April 17th

 Critical fire weather for most of west/central Kansas with potential for extreme fire weather in southwest Kansas. 

A strong storm system will take shape in northwest Kansas, spreading a dryline eastward into the Flint Hills. West of the dryline, winds will turn southwest, then west with widespread gusts to 30mph. A corridor of 50-60mph winds may develop from southwest Kansas, extending northeast into north-central by the late afternoon. Combined with afternoon humidity less than 10% and temperatures 90F+, this will yield extreme fire weather conditions. Should the strongest winds shift a bit further south, the coverage would be substantially less in Kansas. Additionally, afternoon cloud cover may limit surface heating somewhat taking the edge off of the environment.  A cold front will push south in the evening shifting winds northerly into the overnight. Humidity recovery ahead of the front will be poor until it passes. 

 

 

Friday, April 18th

 Another cold front will push south into the state with an increase in clouds. This will drop temperatures back to near normal and reinforce the breezy northerly winds. Afternoon humidity will reside in the mid-20% range. This could develop some elevated fire weather in north-central Kansas, however, confidence is low in coverage. 

 

 

Saturday, April 19th

Despite continued light northeast winds, moisture will dramatically increase in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This will likely develop periods of elevated showers and thunderstorms.  The most concentrated focus for precipitation will be in south-central, southeast Kansas. Elsewhere, clouds and cooler temperatures will mitigate the environment. 

 

 

Easter Sunday, April 20th

Another strong storm will traverse the region. This time, there will be substantial moisture in the environment to generate several rounds of showers/storms. Highest confidence resides in central/eastern Kansas with wetting moisture. However, recent trends have been to shift the strongest corridor of precipitation to the east. Regardless, fire weather conditions will be mitigated through the day. 

  

Monday, April 21st

As system slides off to the east, drier air will reside across the region. Winds will be southerly up to 20mph with afternoon temperatures much warmer. Some elevated fire weather possible along the CO border, otherwise, no fire weather concerns. 

Chip (4/14/25)

Next update 4/17/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.