4/10/25 Forecast (4/10 - 4/17)

 Fuels:

Green-up has continued to progress westward over the last several days. However, recent warm/dry conditions combined with freezes earlier this week has resulted in a slight decrease in the GSI. Additionally, ERC values have begun increasing again with warmer conditions and are forecasted to exceed 60th %tile statewide in the coming days. As a result, some areas of green grass could potentially burn and timber areas may begin to observe increased spread and holdover potential until moisture is again received. Areas with greatest large fire concern remain the southwest to north-central corridor, especially in regions with continuous dormant fuel loading. However, increased behavior is expected statewide with potential for more initial attack.

Statewide Preparedness Level: 2

 

Growing Season Index: 

 

Forecast:

Thursday, April 10th

Critical fire weather for north central to southwest Kansas, elevated fire weather for the remainder of the state. 

Post-frontal dry air mass moves into the region with gusty northerly winds up to 35mph for the region. Despite temperatures about 10F cooler, afternoon humidity will drop into the mid-teens statewide. This will develop critical fire weather for areas that have missed the recent moisture. Elsewhere, elevated fire weather is expected for the remainder of the state. Winds should weaken after 2100 with only moderate recovery into Friday. 

 

Friday, April 11th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas. 

High pressure will build across the region and slowly shift eastward. This will weaken winds for most of the state with temperatures a few degrees warmer. Winds will shift southerly in the afternoon along the CO border with a few gusts to 25mph possible. A dry air mass will remain for western Kansas with humidity in the teens yielding elevated fire weather. Further east, humidity will slightly moderate with no fire weather concerns there. 

 

 
Saturday, April 12th

Elevated fire weather for western Kansas. 

Strong southerly return flow, with gusts to 40mph expected across the state. While this pattern can favor numerous escapes and heavy initial attack, overall humidity in central/east Kansas will increase into the 25-30% range. Further west, winds will be slightly lighter with gusts only to 25mph. However, humidity will remain in the 10-15% range, resulting in elevated fire weather in the afternoon.  Overnight, a dryline will push into southwest Kansas yielding poor overnight recovery and an extension of the burn period into Sunday. 

Sunday, April 13th

Elevated fire weather statewide.

Cold front will push across the state during the day. This front will provide a wind shift to the north with gusts to 35mph post-frontal. Despite this front, temperatures will still reach the mid-80s for most of the state. Combined with a dry air mass, afternoon humidity around 25%. Elevated fire weather is expected for most of the state. A more potent cold front expected overnight will bring a round of showers/storms to the state with much cooler air post-frontal.

Monday, April 14th

Elevated fire weather for north-central and northeast Kansas. 

Breezy northwest winds will remain with much cooler air. With gusts near 35mph and afternoon humidity still near 20%, elevated fire weather is expected for portions of north-central and northeast Kansas where gusts are the strongest. Despite drier air in the west, lighter winds will mitigate the environment. 

 

Tuesday, April 15th

High pressure builds in across the region with lighter winds and warming temperatures. Persistent dry conditions are expected with widespread humidity in the 15-20% range. Southerly winds will increase late day along the CO border as the next system approaches. 

 

 

Wednesday, April 16th

Storm system is expected to move slowly across the state during the day. This will likely develop thunderstorms for central/eastern Kansas in the afternoon with much improved moisture. Further west, a cold front will push south along the CO border. This will result in breezy northerly winds and persistent low humidity. However, fire weather concerns appear low at this time. 

 

Thursday, April 17th

 Lingering clouds and moisture will remain across eastern and much of central Kansas. Further west/north along the CO and NE borders, drier conditions are expected with afternoon humidity in the 20% range. Winds may be breezy at times from the northwest, but should remain under 25mph. 

 

Chip (4/10/25)

Next update 4/14/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.