3/6/25 Forecast (3/6 - 3/13)

 

Fuels: 

Heavy precipitation occurred in southeast and northwest Kansas that has resulted in some decreased ERCs statewide. However, persistent dry conditions remain from southwest and into central Kansas. This aligns with the increased fuel loading in the southwest as well. As a result, despite cooler conditions at the onset of the period, fire behavior will be increased in this region with suppression difficulty even under benign conditions. Into early next week, dramatic warming/drying is going to be initiated with rapidly escalating fuel landscape susceptible to large fire. It is notable that greenness continues to expand slowly northward into far southeast Kansas. However, it isn't widespread enough to mitigate fire concerns during a warm/dry period. 



Weekly PL Matrix: (PL 2-3):

 


Onset GSI:

 

Forecast:

Thursday, March 6th

Critical fire weather for Greeley to Meade Co and westward.
Elevated elsewhere for all but northeast Kansas.

Winds shift southeast as warm/dry conditions push back northward into the region. Widespread humidity in the mid-20% range is expected for all but the northeast where snow cover resides. Additionally, humidity will fall to near the single digits in far southwest. This, combined with wind gusts up to 35-40mph will result in widespread elevated fire weather. In southwest Kansas, winds will shift more southeast with a weak dryline. Winds continue overnight with poor overnight humidity recovery into Friday. A cold front will push south across the state in the early morning hours of Friday. 

Friday, March 7th

Breezy northerly winds and temperatures several degrees cooler. Afternoon humidity will be moderated with values near the 30% range. Slightly lower humidity is expected in the southwest. Diminishing wind late in the period will keep fire weather concerns low. 


 

Saturday, March 8th

Temperatures begin to rebound with light west winds. Despite humidity in the low 20% range, light winds will result in no fire weather concerns. 


 

 Sunday, March 9th

Persistent conditions continue into Sunday with slow warming. West winds will increase slightly with a few gusts close to 20mph. Afternoon humidity will fall into the 20% range again but overall light winds should moderate any fire weather concerns. 


 

Monday, March 10th

Critical fire weather expected for most of the state except far east. 

Winds shift southwesterly and increase with afternoon gusts up to 35mph. This will result in dramatic warming across the region with afternoon humidity in the middle teens. Widespread critical fire weather expected during the day. Overnight, winds continue with poor humidity recovery west of US-81 resulting in the continuation of the burn period into Tuesday. 


Tuesday, March 11th

 Critical fire weather from Morton to Brown Co and southward to Oklahoma. 

Corridor of strongest winds shifts eastward expanding from southwest to northeast Kansas and southward. Gusts to 35mph are expected with humidity in the upper teens. Some increase in humidity is expected for far southeastern Kansas in the afternoon. Very warm temperatures continue. 


Wednesday, March 12th

Elevated fire weather for southwest Kansas.

Humidity increases for all but southwest Kansas as winds shift more southerly. A dryline will push into southwest Kansas and keep humidity in the teens for the southwest with winds more southwesterly. This will result in elevated fire weather during the afternoon and potentially expand eastward in the evening. 


 

Thursday, March 13th

At least elevated fire weather in southwest Kansas.

Another potent storm system will push east across the region. This will allow a corridor of drier air to push eastward across the state. The magnitude of fire weather conditions will greatly depend on the track of the system. For now, at least elevated fire weather is expected in southwest Kansas. 


Chip (3/6/25)

Next update 3/10/25

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


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