3/3/25 Forecast (3/3 - 3/10)

Fuels: 

Much warmer than normal temperatures and dry, breezy conditions have resulted in snow erosion and rapid drying statewide. As a result, initial attack has increased and areas with above normal fuel loading have observed an uptick in fire behavior, especially in the southwest. With a dynamic forecast, conditions are going to vary over the forecast region with time. Any areas that observe precipitation will have fire behavior checked up, especially north of I-70 (where some snow is forecasted) and east of US-35 (where rainfall is favored). Further west, many areas of central/west Kansas will observe continued drying with increased fire behavior potential. Fire spread potential will once again expand for the remainder of the state into mid-March with a return of warmer/drier than normal conditions expected after this week. Lastly, there has been a notable increase in greenness across the east. However, the spatial extent of this cool season vegetation is not expected to limit fire spread/behavior to any extent.


Weekly PL Matrix: (PL 3)

 

   


Onset GSI: (0.09, or 9)

 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 3rd 

Critical fire weather expected for the Wallace to Meade Co line and westward during the day. Overnight, elevated fire weather for most of western and central Kansas into Tuesday. 

A potent storm system will develop across eastern Colorado similar to Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreaks that'll continue into Tuesday. While most intense fire weather/outbreak conditions will occur south of Kansas, a dryline will push into west/southwest Kansas with southwest winds gusting to 50mph and RH down to the single digits. This will overspread an area with above normal fuel loading with the potential for large/significant fire. Further east, increased humidity and more southeasterly winds will moderate fire weather. As we transition into the overnight, winds will gradually weaken. However, the dryline will continue eastward, potentially reaching the Barber-Rooks county line and westward with RH less than 25%. This will allow for elevated fire weather overnight and poor RH recovery. 

 

 

Tuesday, March 4th

Elevated fire weather for central and southeast Kansas during the morning and early afternoon. 

An impressive and complicated weather scenario will unfold through the day. An significant cold front will push into western Kansas and slowly move eastward during the afternoon. Wind gusts behind the front up to 65mph are possible out of the northwest. Overall fire weather will be moderated by increased humidity, much cooler air and some snowfall in this regime. Ahead of the front in the morning/early afternoon, central and eastern Kansas will see breezy southerly winds with RH as low as the 20% range that will develop elevated fire weather. If any fires develop ahead of the front in this warm/dry airmass, a frontal passage with a 180 degree wind shift may result in brief rapid fire growth. With thunderstorm activity ahead of the front in east Kansas, there is some minimal potential for dry lightning strikes in the afternoon. Very strong northwest winds will continue into early Wednesday but cold/moist conditions (along with some snowfall) will check up any fire weather concerns. 


 

Wednesday, March 5th

Elevated fire weather for areas of the state that do not observe snowfall - mostly west/central Kansas during the daylight hours. 

 Potent northwest winds, in excess of 45mph are expected at daybreak in eastern Kansas. Winds will slowly diminish through the day. However, where there is no snow cover, humidity will drop as low as 20%. This will result in elevated fire weather where there was no precipitation despite much colder conditions. Overnight, good recovery is expected with light winds. 

   


Thursday, March 6th

Critical fire weather for southwest Kansas, from Wallace to Barber Co and westward. Elevated fire weather elsewhere across the state where there is no snow cover. 

Active pattern continues with return south/southeast flow encompassing the region. This will push winds up to the 40mph mark with afternoon humidity as low as the teens, especially in southwest Kansas. A dryline will generate drier conditions in southwest Kansas around sunset with a wind shift to the west. Continued elevated/critical conditions will persist until the early morning hours on Friday when a cold front will shift winds northerly and increase humidity. Further east, the forecast is greatly dependent on snow cover. Where there is no snow, elevated fire weather is expected with winds to 30mph and humidity in the mid-20% range. 

 

 

Friday, March 7th

Gusty northerly winds, up to 45mph, are anticipated in a post-frontal environment ushering in colder, higher humidity air for the state. This latter will mitigate fire weather concerns for the region. There is some potential for the pre-frontal drier environment to linger in the early AM along the OK border, however, predictability is low for elevated fire weather during the peak burn period.  

 

 

Saturday, March 8th

Elevated fire weather for most of the state during the afternoon. 

Lingering northerly flow will continue with wind gusts to 30mph during the afternoon. Despite the northerly flow, temperatures will climb a few degrees to near normal with afternoon minimum humidity in the 20% range. This will likely yield elevated fire weather for much of the state during the afternoon. Conditions should quickly moderate after sunset.  

 

 

Sunday, March 9th

Much drier and warmer downslope conditions will overtake the region. Temperatures are expected to climb by as much as 10-15F with afternoon humidity in the middle teens to 20% range. Winds will be westerly with a few gusts to 20mph. However, overall conditions will be limited by the moderated wind. Should forecast of stronger winds materialize, widespread elevated to near-critical fire weather is possible.  Overnight recovery is expected to be poor to moderate into Monday west of US-81.


 

 

Monday, March 10th

Widespread at least elevated fire weather statewide with potential for critical fire weather. 

Downslope winds will continue and strengthen, shifting southwesterly. This will result in a dramatic increase in temperatures with widespread humidity in the 10-15% range. Combined with south/southwest winds up to 35mph, elevated to critical fire weather statewide appears likely during the afternoon burn period.   


Chip (3/3/25)

Next update 3/6/25


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