3/24/25 Forecast (3/24 - 3/31)

 Fuels:

Continued dryness with breezy, warm conditions have pushed statewide ERC above the 70th percentiile. Fire behavior is expected to be more intense as a result with potential increased fire behavior, even under benign conditions. Additionally, heavier fuels are likely to hold heat longer and become problems later, especially from prescribed burns. Timber areas are becoming more conducive to fire spread and may not be an adequate place to catch wildfires. Continued warmth is fueling gradual greenup across the region. GSI is forecasted to reach above 50% statewide by the end of the period. This will result in more barriers to spread and perhaps check up fire behavior, mostly in the east and where precipitation has occurred in recent days. 

 

Statewide Preparedness Level (see sidebar for definition of indices): 3

 

 

Growing season index: 

 

Forecast:

Monday, March 24th

Elevated fire weather for south-central and southeast Kansas. 

A weak low pressure system will push across the state during the day. This will result in shifting winds from southwest to northwest during the day. A corridor of drier air will push just ahead of the front into the south-central/southeast Kansas with afternoon minimum humidity falling into the low teens. Winds will be breezy with wind gusts to 30-35mph once again. After sunset, humidity recovery should be good-to-moderate with light northwest winds. 

 

Tuesday, March 25th

Breezy northwest winds will continue with a post-frontal air mass in place. Winds will be strongest in the central/east Kansas with gusts to 30mph. With slightly cooler temperatures, afternoon humidity will be slightly moderated with minimums in the mid-20% range. This should slightly moderate/improve the fire environment. 

 

 

Wednesday, March 26th

Southerly return flow will develop across the western half of the state. Afternoon wind gusts for the west will likely exceed 40mph. This should bump up afternoon minimum humidity in the west with afternoon values in the upper 20% range. Further east, humidity will reside much lower, potentially in the teens but winds will be lighter. While with recent dry conditions fuels may allow for suppression issues of any fire, overall fire environment should remain moderated to limit large fire potential. 

 

Thursday, March 27th

Elevated fire weather for southwest and central Kansas. 

A complicated scenario will evolve as the next storm system takes shape in the Plains. At the moment, it appears that most of the moisture will shift south/east of the state. As a result, windy southwest flow will develop across southwest and central Kansas with gusts up to 45mph. With very warm temperatures, lowest humidity will push into western Kansas with values down to the single digits. However, it appears that lowest RH won't overlap with the strongest winds. There is some potential for afternoon values near 20% in southwest/central which will likely result in at least elevated fire weather. Poor overnight recovery and breezy winds are expected to persist across most of the state as the dry air advances east. 

 

 

Friday, March 28th

Elevated fire weather for southwest and central Kansas.  

Dry air will persist over the western third of the state with breezy southerly winds. With temperatures in the mid-80s, the amount of moisture that moves northward from the south will determine where/when fire weather will exist. At the moment, it appears that despite some single digit RH in the west, the strongest winds will be further east of this corridor. Humidity in central Kansas will be moderated in the mid-20% range which should limit fire weather somewhat. Still, with gusts potentially up to 40mph, elevated fire weather is likely for portions of southwest and central Kansas during the afternoon.

 

 

Saturday, March 29th

A storm system will develop across Kansas. The current track from the forecast models take it along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This would favor some, potentially widespread, precipitation across the state and check up any fire weather concerns. If it would shift further north, a wildfire outbreak-like scenario could evolve. Current expectations are that some moisture will occur with moderated fire weather conditions with highest confidence in moisture for eastern Kansas. 

 Sunday, March 30th

Post-frontal conditions will envelop the state with gusty northwest winds up to 45mph and cooler conditions. A drier air mass will allow afternoon humidity to fall into the mid-20% range despite recent moisture. Regardless, fire weather conditions will be moderated by increased humidity. 

 

 

 Monday, March 31st

Southerly return flow again returns with winds out of the south up to 35mph. Moisture will increase for eastern Kansas, but struggle further west with afternoon RH in the teens. Currently, corridor of strongest winds should focus in central Kansas with limited overlap of fire weather conditions anywhere in the state. 

Chip (3/24/25)

Next update 3/27/25

 

Risk	Humidity	Wind	Other
Elevated	Around 20%	Sustained, greater than 10mph Gusting, greater than 20mph	Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical	Around 15%	Sustained, greater than 20mph Gusting, greater than 30mph	Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme	Around 10%	Sustained, greater than 35mph Gusting, greater than 40mph	Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.