3/20/25 Forecast (3/20 - 3/27)

 Fuels:

A brief reprieve in fuel moisture has occurred with a cooler air mass and associated blizzard across portions of west/central Kansas. The duration of snow cover will be limited except for an area from Gove to Norton/Phillips Co where the heaviest amounts fell. Warmer/drier conditions combined with poor overnight recoveries will quickly offset recent moisture through the period. ERC percentiles statewide will rebound back to above the 70th percentile by late weekend. Moisture will aid in greenup in wheat and cool season grasses. This will help increase barriers to spread and mitigate fire behavior in places that received moisture.  


Statewide Preparedness Level (see sidebar for definition of indices): 3

 

 

Forecast:

Thursday, March 20th

Elevated fire weather for the western half of the state void of snow cover. 

Return flow will develop with south/southwest winds up to 30mph in the late afternoon. This will push in much warmer/drier conditions with temperatures about 15F warmer than Wednesday. Combined with a dry air mass, widespread low humidity in the 10-15% range is expected, higher where snow resides. Moderate to poor overnight recovery expected with a continuation in the southwesterly winds. Strongest winds will shift east as a cold front enters northwest Kansas in the early morning of Friday.

 

 

Friday, March 21st

Critical fire weather statewide except where snow cover lingers. 

Southwest winds early in the day across southeast Kansas will shift northwest as the weak cold front passes the area. A dry post-cold front environment will result in widespread humidity in the 15-20% range. Gusty northwest winds with gusts up to 35-40mph. Elevated fire to near critical fire weather through the afternoon. Conditions should ease after sunset. 


Saturday, March 22nd

Critical fire weather for the western third of the state, elevated conditions for central and eastern Kansas. 

Southerly flow returns with gusts to 40mph out of the south across the western third of the state, 20-25 for the central/east. Temperatures will warm about 10F more than Friday with widespread afternoon RH in the mid teens. Breezy winds continue overnight with only moderate humidity for all but the east where some scattered storms are possible along the MO border. A cold front will push into northwest Kansas with a wind shift out of the northwest into Sunday. 


Sunday, March 23rd

Critical fire weather for all but far western Kansas. 

Gusty northwest winds across the region with a continued dry, but cooler air mass in place. Afternoon gusts will exceed 40mph resulting in critical fire weather in central/east Kansas. Winds will be weaker in the far west. Statewide will observe afternoon minimum humidity in the 20% range. A few areas along the MO border that received moisture overnight will have moderated humidity. Winds will diminish after sunset. 

 

Monday, March 24th

Elevated fire weather for all of Kansas. 

Winds shift back southwest with temperatures bouncing back into the mid-60s. Lowest humidity is expected in south-central/southeast Kansas where afternoon RH values will fall into the mid teens. This area will also observe the highest winds with gusts to 35mph. Additionally, a mid-day cold front will cross the region shifting winds northwest during the burn period. Winds still gusting to 30mph are expected post-frontal with no improvement of moisture despite slightly cooler temperatures. 


Tuesday, March 25th

Temperatures will reside about 10F warmer than Monday with continued dry conditions. An increase in cloud cover and moderated light west wind should mitigate fire weather concerns. Improved overnight humidity recovery into Wednesday.

 

 

Wednesday, March 26th

Southerly flow develops across western Kansas with gusts to 25mph. Persistent warm temperatures will yield widespread humidity in the 15-20% range. Some elevated fire weather is possible in far west Kansas with lighter winds in central/east Kansas. Continued good overnight humidity recovery.

 

 

Thursday, March 27th

Temperatures continue to warm with values approaching the 80F mark. This will result in widespread afternoon humidity in the 15-20% range with continued drying. Overall, winds will shift southerly for the southwest and some potential elevate fire weather will emerge but confidence in coverage is limited. Moisture will increase late afternoon in eastern Kansas with winds more southeasterly.


Chip (3/20/25)

Next update 3/24/25

 

Risk Humidity Wind Other
          Elevated  
Around 20% Sustained, greater than 10mph
Gusting, greater than 20mph		 Less than Red Flag Warning criteria usually and fire is able to move rapidly
Critical Around 15% Sustained, greater than 20mph
Gusting, greater than 30mph		 Expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met and very rapid growth likely
Extreme Around 10% Sustained, greater than 35mph
Gusting, greater than 40mph		 Historical fire weather event possible with extreme growth likely

Please note, forecast is only updated twice weekly unless significant fire risk evolves.


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