2/24/25 Forecast (2/24 - 3/3)

 Fuels: 

Snow cover has continued to erode across the state with recent warm temperatures. As a result, fuels are slowly becoming more available. This week observed an increased in ERC statewide from the increased drying of very, very cold air. Additionally, areas in the west continue to expand the time since their last wetting rain, up to 80-100 days. With warmer/drier conditions forecasted this week, fuels will have potential for increased fire behavior, even during benign fire conditions. Forecasted ERCs are expected to continue increasing through the period, peaking on Friday (28th). We have already observed this with a fire in Finney Co several weeks ago. Subtle increases in GSI are also occurring in the southeast. With ample surface moisture, greenup is expected to continue to gradually increase in this region.

Weekly PL matrix.

 

 

Onset GSI. 

 


Forecast:

Monday, February 24th

Much warmer and drier air will push into the state. Temperatures will push the 70F mark in western Kansas from downsloping winds with humidity into the low 20% range. Winds will be mostly light out of the west with the exception of far northwest Kansas. There, a weak cold front will increase winds from the northwest with some localized gusts to 25mph in the afternoon. Lack in coverage of stronger winds will mitigate fire weather concerns. 

 

 

Tuesday, February 25th

Elevated fire weather west of Phillips - Clark Co line and westward during the afternoon. 

Continued very warm conditions with temperatures running 20+ degrees above normal. This will result in humidity again in the low 20% range for most of Kansas. Winds will increase in the afternoon out of the south/southwest with strongest gusts west of Phillips to Clark Co line and westward, reaching up to 30mph. Here, elevated fire weather is expected during the afternoon, diminishing after sunset. A cold front will push south overnight with breezy northerly winds developing to 25-30mph.  

 

 

 Wednesday, February 26th

Elevated fire weather statewide during the afternoon. 

Post-frontal conditions will result in temperatures about 20 degrees cooler, but still above normal. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-50s. Regardless, a dry airmass will result in widespread afternoon minimum humidity in the mid-20% range. Breezy northwesterly winds will result in gusts to 30mph, potentially higher north of I-70. This will result in elevated fire weather during the afternoon hours. Winds will decrease after sunset with good overnight recovery. 

 


 

 

Thursday, February 27th

Light northwest winds will continue across the region with a few gusts to 20mph in eastern Kansas. Temperatures and humidity will remain similar to Wednesday. However, lighter winds will mitigate fire weather concerns. Winds will transition southwest overnight and gradually increase into Friday, only moderate recovery is expected in the west.

 

 

 

Friday, February 28th

Elevated fire weather statewide for breezy, shifting winds through the day. 

Southwest winds increase in the early morning with a few gusts to 25mph just after sunrise. A well mixed atmosphere will result in a longer burn period than previous days. Additionally, a cold front will push southeast across the state during the day. This will increase winds to 30-35mph out of the north/northwest. Despite falling and still above normal temperatures, humidity through the day will reside in the upper teens to near 20%. This combined with the breezy and shifting winds will result in elevated fire weather for the period. Winds will diminish with increasing humidity after sunset mitigating fire weather concerns. 



Saturday, March 1st

Some lingering northerly winds are expected east of US-81 but gusts will remain under 25mph. Further west, winds will transition southerly ahead of the next system with a few gusts to 25mph in far southwest Kansas. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with afternoon humidity in the mid-20% range statewide. Some isolated elevated fire weather possible in far southwest Kansas, otherwise, no fire weather concerns expected. 

 


 

Sunday, March 2nd

Southeasterly flow increases during the morning hours with increasing moisture and cloud cover. Despite some wind gusts over 25mph and continued above normal temperatures, moderation in humidity will mitigate any fire weather concerns. Additionally, precipitation in far southwest Kansas is possible late in the day and slowly expand eastward overnight. 

 

 

Monday, March 3rd

 Quite a bit of model differences result in an uncertain forecast for Monday. However, it appears likely that a stationary front will reside southwest to northeast across the state. South of this front, breezy southwesterly winds and much warmer temperatures are possible. Some areas of elevated fire weather are possible, dependent on where/if precipitation occurs on Sunday.North of the front, cooler temperatures and minimal fire weather is expected. 

  

 

Chip (2/24/25)

Next update, 3/3/25

 

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